美國玉米產量將比去年為少

U. s Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1／

Item 1993／94 1994／95

Est.

 1995／96 Projections(預估)
July August September

      CORN

      Area                                                                         Million acres(百萬英畝)

          planted                                    73.2                   79.2                      72.0*                        71.3

          Harvested                                 62.9                   72.9                      65.0*                        64.7

      Yield per harvested                                                         Bushels(英斗)

           acre                                         100.7                 138.6                    119.7*                      125.6

                                                                                      Million bushels(百萬英斗)

        Beginning stocks                       2113                   850                     1505                         1455

        Production(生產量)                   6336                10103                    7785                         8122        7.832百萬英斗

       Imports

           Supply. total

       Feed and residual

       Food. seed industrial

          Domestic. total

        Exports

           Use. total

       Ending stocks. total

      (期末庫存)

 21

8470

4704

1588

6292

1328

7620

850

　

 12

10965

5650

1710

7360

2150

9510

1455

　

 10

9300

4925

1775

6700

1875

8575

725

　

 10

9587

5025

1775

6800

2000

8800

787

　

 　

　

　

　

　

　

　

　

730百萬英斗

       Farmer-owned reserve

       CCC inventory

       Free stocks

           outstanding loans

       Avg.  farm price ($／bu.) 2 /

       (產地價格)

 119

45

686

77

2.50

　

 90

43

1322

250

2.25

　

 　

　

　

2.55-2.95

 　

　

　

2.45-2.85

 　

　

　

　

2.55-2.95

(美元／英斗)

Note : Totals may not add due to rounding. 1 / Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum ; June 1 for barley and oats. 2 / Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * For July : Corn : area planted and area harvested as reported in June Acreage report. Projected trend yields (fit over 1960-94 period)have been adjusted to reflect late plantings.

wpeFC.jpg (20823 bytes)

                Source：USDA

                資料來源：美國農業部

        美國農業部於9月12日發佈＜全球農業供需預估＞，大幅降低今年度美國玉米的生產量，自上個月預估值的8,122百萬英斗(206百萬公噸)減為7,832百萬英斗(198.9百萬公噸)，亦即往下修正3.6％。請參閱附表。

        美國玉米之實際生產量於去年達到破記錄的10,103百萬英斗(256.6百萬公噸)。如以美國農業部於9月12日發佈的數量為準，則今年美國玉米的生產量將比去年大幅減少22.5％。

        在美國農業部於今年九月間發佈玉米的預估數量之前，美國的業界人士亦曾自行推測玉米產量。業界之預測產量平均約為7,894百萬英斗，已比農業部於八月間發佈的數量為低，想不到農業部公佈的數量更比業界的預測產量為低，故更進一步地推波助瀾，使芝加哥期貨市場的玉米期貨價格大漲。

飼料營養雜誌(p.48∼49)─美國飼料殼物協會．九五年第十一期

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